Friday, 8 May 2009

20

Correlation does not imply causation


I'm struggling to explain day one of my fair, so I'm resorting to dorkiness:
  • Last year I did one big fair and was blown away by how much I sold.
  • Last year I did 15 small fairs and was blown away by what a waste of time it was.
  • Ergo, large fairs = success.
  • Last year's successful fair was pitched at the general populace, this fair is targetted at people with children under 5.
  • Target market this fair > target market last year's fair.
  • Ergo, success at this fair > success at last year's fair.
  • I sold 300+ items last year.
  • Ergo, I need more than 300 items for this fair.
This is the thought process I have been blithely following as I've stayed up until 2AM practically every night for the last couple of weeks, churning out garment after garment after garment. Buying more supplies, to make more garments. Slicing and dicing my fabric stash to make more garments. Oh, how proud I was of the size of my stock! 195 t-shirts, 70 pairs of shoes, 38 dresses, 30 rompers, 24 peasant tops, 8 jackets and assorted trousers and skirts. I worried I might not have enough.

But, 'Wait!", I hear you say, 'correlation does not imply causation!'. Big does not necessarily equal success, there are many other variables. Like Scottish weather. Yesterday was blowing a gale. My newly-pretty-but-waxy-residued eyebrows threatened to collect the debris whipping down the street. After dark, the heavens opened to near-Biblical proportions. Arriving at the venue this morning, the marquee shuddered with the gale-force wind. My wheeled hanging rails kept making a break for it until I taped up the casters. Rain permeated the supposedly impermeable ceiling and dripped on my table. Would you believe the Portoloos (that's Portapotties for my US friends) actually blew over?! My rockin' apron was hidden under my winter jacket (and sweater and shirt). In the end, this didn't matter, because I sold five t-shirts all day long. Nothing else. And with the forecast predicting the same weather for the next two days, I despair. If things don't improve over the weekend, not only won't I remotely cover my hiring costs (remember big fairs= big table costs) but I will be laden with more than 300 ready made items and a very small fabric stash...

20 comments:

  1. Oh god ... it's so crappy to then come home and have your other half say "well, how did you get on?".
    I'm not even going to say "chin up" because I've so totally been there.
    :o(
    Big pooey bum-holes.

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  2. Oh poo bum crap wee. :-(
    That's so frustrating!
    It's certainly no reflection on your gorgeous clothes... hoping that the weather improves for you.
    x
    (PS... word verification for my post today was 'bleast'. That's officially my new made-up word for the melancholy brought on by a crap market day.... "feeling bleast".)

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  3. Don't I know it! I have been counting on having lovely takeaways the next couple of nights funded by my spoils... Umm, tonight we had microwaved lasagne courtesy of my MIL.

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  4. Thanks MoederKip: Bleast is certainly apt...

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  5. Oh honey I'm so sorry :( You don't deserve that at all. I really hope the weather picks up for you over the weekend and you make loads of sales xx

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  6. Thanks Vonnie :) Now go and have your baby!

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  7. It's supposed to clear up some tomorrow, I hope it's better:( Saturdays should be better anyway (fingers crossed)

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  8. Thanks Louiz, Friend Sarah is keeping me company tomorrow so it least I'll have companionship in failure....

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  9. I bet tomorrow will be better...Saturdays usually are....having said that I TOTALLY understand your frustration...fairs are so tricky...you just never know how it will be so it makes it impossible to plan for...you know how I always did great selling my handbags? home parties...I found them the best way to sell...pre Etsy days of course

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  10. I haven't breached personal parties yet... Need to get some bravado!

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  11. oh no what a pisser :0(

    hope the weekend weather and sales improve - i'll be keeping my fingers crossed for you x

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  12. Oh dear, Kitschy, I've been there many times too, its so crap and I sympathise greatly, m'dear, hope it picks up for you. Mxx

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  13. That really stinks! But at least you'll be ahead for the next fair.

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  14. Oh - so sorry your day was rotten. Will keep fingers crossed for fair weather, or if not, at least fair customers!

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  15. *hugs* so sorry you had such a shit day... thats why I have been loath to do any fairs.. I did two small ones last year and it was hell... I'm just not go at that sort of thing.. can't promote myself and I think I just need locking up in a closet for a long while... I hope you do great at the next one as your stuff is fantastic...

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  16. Argh, BRING ON THE SUNSHINE (or at least stop the rain) and BRING ON THE CUSTOMERS! Hope it gets better! xo

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  17. Hope today goes better :)

    Hoping for a sunny, spendy saturday for you.

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  18. You poor soul... what a shame. Hope today was better and tomorrow's a record-breaker.

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  19. oh man- i so hear you. craft fairs are SUCH a hard way to make a living. good luck with it. at least you'll have a large inventory if things don't pick up...

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